Ospreys back four clubs, and will send the 23-season analysis of Cardiff, Dragons, Ospreys and Scarlets to the WRU and publish it in full
A study by Sheffield Hallam University of 23 seasons of Welsh professional rugby has concluded that the evidence does not support reducing the number of professional clubs in Wales from four to three.
The Welsh Rugby Data Report, which examines the record of all four clubs alongside the data published on the future of the professional game, states: “The independent analysis of the data does not logically lead to a conclusion that the removal of one professional team in Wales is a strategic move grounded in evidence.”
Professor Keith Davids, Professor of Perceptual-Motor Learning at Sheffield Hallam University and one of the report’s four authors, suggests that:
“In our view, the rationale for change is not supported by evidence. Narrowing down the pool of players into fewer locations will narrow down the competition pool. This approach may not be helpful for the development of the whole system."
The Ospreys’ position is that Welsh rugby is strongest with four professional clubs: Cardiff, Dragons, Ospreys and Scarlets.
The Club will send the report to the Welsh Rugby Union and publish it in full by the end of November so that supporters, their clubs and the wider game can read the evidence for themselves.
The report was produced by Sheffield Hallam University’s Sport and Physical Activity Research Centre (SPARC). It was commissioned by Ospreys Rugby Limited; the analysis and conclusions are the University’s own
Why four: what the report finds
- Derbies. Fixtures between the four Welsh clubs generated 48% of league attendances at home games in Wales from 2012 to 2026. With three clubs, those fixtures would fall from twelve a season to six.
- Players. Removing one team would create what the report calls a “bottleneck”, with fewer elite playing opportunities in Wales and a greater risk of more Welsh players moving to clubs outside Wales.
- Wales. The report finds that Wales have recorded higher Six Nations finishes in the seasons when the Welsh clubs have performed well.
- All four clubs contribute. Over the period the report records Cardiff with the highest average attendances, Scarlets as the leading Welsh club in the European Cup and Dragons with the highest stadium utilisation, alongside the Ospreys’ record in the league and in supplying most players to Wales and the Lions.
The Ospreys’ record, 2003–04 to 2025–26 is the overall strongest
- League. Four championship wins, six play-off appearances and an average league position of 5.7, the highest of the Welsh clubs on each measure.
- Europe. Second among the Welsh clubs in the European Cup.
- Wales. 47 selections for Rugby World Cup squads and 181 for Six Nations squads since 2008, the most of any Welsh club.
- Lions. 22 Welsh Lions selections and 15 individual Lions since 2005, with representation on all six tours.
The Ospreys are playing this season at St Helen’s, redeveloped in partnership with Swansea Council, with the investment of Y11 Sport & Media behind the Club, an academy drawing on the community clubs and schools of the region, and Ospreys in the Community working across Swansea, Neath Port Talbot and Bridgend.
Alun Wyn Jones, Director of Ospreys Rugby, who chaired the Club’s working group that commissioned the report, said:
"We want four Clubs. This is not about one club’s record against another’s. Cardiff, Dragons, Scarlets and Ospreys have all put players in a Wales jersey, and the report shows what the four of them bring to Welsh rugby together."
“Decisions about the future of the professional game in Wales should rest on the fullest evidence available. We commissioned this work to add to that evidence, and we asked the University to follow the data wherever it led. We will send the full report to the WRU as soon as it is final and we look forward to discussing it with them.”
Richard Lancaster, Managing Director of Ospreys Rugby, said:
“We have completed phase one of the redevelopment of the historic ground at St Helen’s, and season ticket sales and sponsorship have been very encouraging and demonstrates the community, and region is behind elite professional rugby football. The record in this report belongs to a great many people, past and future: the players and coaches, the community clubs and schools of our region, and the supporters who have backed the Club for 23 seasons.
“Sheffield Hallam has measured all four clubs on the same basis, and we believe the findings underline the significant consequences that reducing the number of professional clubs could have for Welsh rugby as a whole. Before any such decision is taken, every option to sustain four clubs should be properly explored.”
What happens next
- From mid-November. On receipt of the final report from Sheffield Hallam University, the Club will send it to the Board of the Welsh Rugby Union, its Chief Executive and the Professional Rugby Board, and will ask that it be placed before the Rugby Summit the Union has announced.
- An open offer. The Club will offer the Union, the Professional Rugby Board and the other three Welsh clubs a briefing on the findings and the method.
- By the end of November. The report is published in full, including its method and sources.
- Supporters. The Club will hold briefings for members, sponsors and supporters’ groups on request.
Notes
- The report. Welsh Rugby Data Report, November 2026, Sport and Physical Activity Research Centre (SPARC), School of Sport and Physical Activity, Sheffield Hallam University. Authors: Dr Steve Bullough (Senior Research Fellow), Tim Vernon (Principal Research Fellow), David Barrett (Research Fellow) and Professor Keith Davids (Professor of Perceptual-Motor Learning).
- Commissioning. The report was commissioned and paid for by Ospreys Rugby Limited. The fee was fixed in advance and did not depend on the findings.
- Scope. The report reviews the data in the WRU's November 2025 club locations data pack, the Keystone report and the material published by the WRU at futurerugby.cymru in October 2026. It also analyses club performance from 2003 to 2026, supply of players to Wales and the British & Irish Lions, attendances and stadium use, population, clubs and schools, and a limited set of financial indicators.
- Method. "Totality of achievement" is a points measure used in the analysis of elite sport. It scores the stage a team reaches in a competition each season, so that performance can be compared on a consistent basis over time.
- Period covered. The 23 seasons from 2003-04, when the four Welsh professional clubs were formed, to 2025-26, across the Celtic League, Pro12, Pro14 and United Rugby Championship. Play-offs were introduced in 2009-10.
- Next steps. The report goes to the WRU Board, the WRU Chief Executive and the Professional Rugby Board from 16 November 2026 and will be published in full by the end of November 2026.